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• W2747193912 startingPage "114" @default.
• W2747193912 abstract "Probabilistic reasoning fallacies in legal practice have been widely documented. Yet these fallacies continue to occur. This paper considers how best to avoid them. Although most fallacies can be easily explained and avoided by applying Bayes’ Theorem, attempts to do so with lawyers using the normal formulaic approach seem doomed to failure. In our experience, for simple arguments it is possible to explain common fallacies using purely visual presentation alternatives to the formulaic version of Bayes in ways that are fully understandable to lay people. However, as the evidence (and dependence between different evidence) becomes more complex, these visual approaches become infeasible. We show how Bayesian networks can be used, in conjunction with visual presentations, to address the more complex arguments in such a way that it is not necessary to expose the underlying complex Bayesian computations. In this way Bayesian Networks work like an electronic calculator for complex Bayesian computations. We demonstrate this new approach in explaining well known fallacies and a new fallacy (called the Crimewatch fallacy) that arose in a recent major murder trial in which we were expert witnesses. We also address the barriers to more widespread take-up of these methods within the legal profession, including the need to ‘believe’ the correctness of Bayesian calculations and the inevitable reluctance to consider subjective prior probabilities. The paper provides a number of original contributions: a classification of fallacies that is conceptually simpler than previous approaches; the new fallacy; and a proposal, whose necessity is based on real case experience, for a radically new means of fully exploiting Bayes to enhance legal reasoning" @default.
• W2747193912 created "2017-08-31" @default.
• W2747193912 creator A5046172297 @default.
• W2747193912 creator A5069178881 @default.
• W2747193912 date "2011-01-01" @default.
• W2747193912 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
• W2747193912 title "Avoiding probabilistic reasoning fallacies in legal practice using Bayesian networks" @default.
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• W2747193912 hasPublicationYear "2011" @default.
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