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• W2766503115 abstract "It has been common practice in the economics literature to utilize data on observed outcomes and negate what individuals believe or expect will happen in the future. Using responses to a unique set of questions in the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97) I show that the literature could benefit in several ways by incorporating such data. The leading essay documents a positive association between a student's subjective probabilistic belief that they will complete a four-year college degree and whether or not they attend and complete college. The results indicate the following. First, although overconfident, individuals as young as fifteen are willing and able to answer subjective probabilistic questions concerning education in a cohesive fashion. Second, these expectations are heterogeneous across race, gender, previous academic success, and parent education, and are influential in predicting whether or not they attend and ultimately complete a degree once these characteristics are controlled for. While the magnitude of the effect diminishes when including the standard economic controls, expectations remain significant and play a larger role as the student ages. Parent expectations are also positive and statistically associated with their child's future college success when the student is young but the significance diminishes as the student ages and gathers information related to the costs and benefits of a college degree. These findings indicate that students possess some form of private information that is not being completely captured by the standard variables used by econometricians to predict college attendance and completion.The second essay uses the NLSY97 to examine how students form and update their college completion expectations as they age out high school. I begin by estimating which factors are utilized by students when forming their expectations while in high school. I find that while these students are taking into account several of the relevant factors associated with college success, they also appear to be neglecting the impact that income and ability have on their likelihood of completing college or are over-relying on poor signals. I then test whether or not students update their expectations in a Bayesian fashion. A Bayesian model is developed. The three ways in which Bayesian students should respond to the acquisition of new information are discussed. Four sources of new information are identified and used in the testing. The testing reveals that students who report either a 0% or 100% chance of completing college do not appear to be Bayesian, but those who report within the 0% and 100% bounds do update in a Bayesian fashion.The third essay studies the accuracy and alignment of the individual's expectation that they will complete college. I utilize several unique aspects of the NLSY97 to create a measure of alignment based on the predicted probability that the respondent will eventually complete college and their expectation of doing so while either in high school or of college…" @default.
• W2766503115 created "2017-11-10" @default.
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• W2766503115 date "2017-01-01" @default.
• W2766503115 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W2766503115 title "Four Essays on a Student's Expectation that they will Complete College" @default.
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• W2766503115 doi "https://doi.org/10.13023/etd.2017.399" @default.
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