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- W2767389903 abstract "Historical observations show that one in two La Nina events last for two consecutive years. Despite their outsized impacts on drought, these 2-year La Nina are not predicted on a routine basis. Here, we assess the predictability of 2-year La Nina using retrospective forecasts performed with a climate model that simulates realistic multi-year events, as well as with an empirical model based on observed predictors. The skill of the retrospective forecasts allows us to make predictions for the upcoming 2017-2018 boreal winter starting from conditions in November 2015. These two-year forecasts indicate that the return of La Nina is more likely than not, with a 60% probability based on the climate model and an 80% probability based on the empirical model; the likelihood of El Nino is less than 8% in both cases. These results demonstrate the feasibility of predictions of the duration of La Nina." @default.
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- W2767389903 date "2017-11-27" @default.
- W2767389903 modified "2023-10-16" @default.
- W2767389903 title "A 2 Year Forecast for a 60–80% Chance of La Niña in 2017–2018" @default.
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- W2767389903 doi "https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl074904" @default.
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