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- W2777398564 endingPage "1516" @default.
- W2777398564 startingPage "1487" @default.
- W2777398564 abstract "We analyze the individual and macroeconomic impacts of heterogeneous expectations and action rules within an agent-based model populated by heterogeneous, interacting firms. Agents have to cope with a complex evolving economy characterized by deep uncertainty resulting from technical change, imperfect information and coordination hurdles. In these circumstances, we find that neither individual nor macroeconomic dynamics improve when agents replace myopic expectations with less naive learning rules. In fact, more sophisticated, e.g. recursive least squares (RLS) expectations produce less accurate individual forecasts and also considerably worsen the performance of the economy. Finally, we experiment with agents that adjust simply to technological shocks, and we show that individual and aggregate performances dramatically degrade. Our results suggest that fast and frugal robust heuristics are not a second-best option: rather they are “rational” in macroeconomic environments with heterogeneous, interacting agents and changing “fundamentals”." @default.
- W2777398564 created "2018-01-05" @default.
- W2777398564 creator A5016085579 @default.
- W2777398564 creator A5023241194 @default.
- W2777398564 creator A5060960665 @default.
- W2777398564 creator A5074218217 @default.
- W2777398564 creator A5085703070 @default.
- W2777398564 date "2020-04-14" @default.
- W2777398564 modified "2023-10-09" @default.
- W2777398564 title "RATIONAL HEURISTICS? EXPECTATIONS AND BEHAVIORS IN EVOLVING ECONOMIES WITH HETEROGENEOUS INTERACTING AGENTS" @default.
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