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• W2778163668 abstract "In this work, we derive a probabilistic forecast of the solar irradiance during a day at a given location, using a stochastic differential equation (SDE for short) model. We propose a procedure that transforms a deterministic forecast into a probabilistic forecast: the input parameters of the SDE model are the AROME numerical weather predictions computed at day $$D-1$$ for the day D. The model also accounts for the maximal irradiance from the clear sky model. The SDE model is mean-reverting towards the deterministic forecast and the instantaneous amplitude of the noise depends on the clear sky index, so that the fluctuations vanish as the index is close to 0 (cloudy) or 1 (sunny), as observed in practice. Our tests show a good adequacy of the confidence intervals of the model with the measurement." @default.
• W2778163668 created "2018-01-05" @default.
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• W2778163668 date "2018-01-01" @default.
• W2778163668 modified "2023-10-15" @default.
• W2778163668 title "Day-Ahead Probabilistic Forecast of Solar Irradiance: A Stochastic Differential Equation Approach" @default.
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• W2778163668 doi "https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-99052-1_4" @default.
• W2778163668 hasPublicationYear "2018" @default.
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