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- W2792015109 abstract "The “Thucydides trap” refers to situations where a war is impending between countries in power transition. Formal models of commitment problems in international relations studies demonstrate the ineffectualness of peace promises in such situations. Fearon’s temporal power shift model associated with resource division problems is a typical one. His model has been expanded to include third-party guarantors while retaining complete information. This study incorporates uncertainty in the model and addresses the question of why some conflicts are resolved by guarantors while others are not. It argues that uncertainties about intervention and costs that accompany conflicts cause the difference. The main findings suggest that suspicions about third-party intervention on the part of domestic actors lead to fighting. Additionally, maintaining peace is more likely to be difficult if the declining actor’s cost of fighting is uncertain, while power shifts of large magnitude prolong conflicts." @default.
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- W2792015109 date "2018-01-01" @default.
- W2792015109 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2792015109 title "Role of Third-Party Guarantors in Uncertainty of Preventive Civil War: Can Thucydides Trap Be Resolved?" @default.
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- W2792015109 doi "https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-7968-9_6" @default.
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