Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W2793853668> ?p ?o ?g. }
- W2793853668 endingPage "229" @default.
- W2793853668 startingPage "213" @default.
- W2793853668 abstract "Abstract As global average sea‐level rises in the early part of this century there is great interest in how much global and local sea level will change in the forthcoming decades. The Paris Climate Agreement's proposed temperature thresholds of 1.5°C and 2°C have directed the research community to ask what differences occur in the climate system for these two states. We have developed a novel approach to combine climate model outputs that follow specific temperature pathways to make probabilistic projections of sea‐level in a 1.5°C and 2°C world. We find median global sea‐level (GSL) projections for 1.5°C and 2°C temperature pathways of 44 and 50 cm, respectively. The 90% uncertainty ranges (5%–95%) are both around 48 cm by 2100. In addition, we take an alternative approach to estimate the contribution from ice sheets by using a semi‐empirical GSL model. Here we find median projections of 58 and 68 cm for 1.5°C and 2°C temperature pathways. The 90% uncertainty ranges are 67 and 82 cm respectively. Regional projections show similar patterns for both temperature pathways, though differences vary between the median projections (2–10 cm) and 95th percentile (5–20 cm) for the bulk of oceans using process‐based approach and 10–15 cm (median) and 15–25 cm (95th percentile) using the semi‐empirical approach. Plain Language Summary The sea level you experience at the coast can be estimated by the sum of contributions from ocean expansion, currents, ice melt from glaciers and ice sheets, land‐water extraction/damming, and land motion. How sea level changes depends strongly on where you are because each contribution has a unique pattern. We use knowledge of these changes to make projections about future sea‐level rise. We estimate how much sea‐level could change if societies achieve either of the Paris Climate Agreement's temperature targets by 2100. If we reach 1.5°C or 2.0°C by 2100, GSL should rise around 44–50 cm, respectively. Using a slightly different method we find the global rise could be 58–68 cm. An incomplete picture of the sea‐level components means that estimates could be out by up to 80 cm, though all projections show a sea‐level rise of at least 20 cm." @default.
- W2793853668 created "2018-03-29" @default.
- W2793853668 creator A5053977045 @default.
- W2793853668 creator A5080473078 @default.
- W2793853668 creator A5091473750 @default.
- W2793853668 date "2018-02-01" @default.
- W2793853668 modified "2023-10-17" @default.
- W2793853668 title "21st Century Sea-Level Rise in Line with the Paris Accord" @default.
- W2793853668 cites W1525688033 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W1562504550 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W1565512823 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W1660683637 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W1902482560 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W1931464755 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W1932009739 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W1959585636 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W1978634036 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W1985217958 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W1990701514 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W1992759408 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W1998644054 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2001702774 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2006750690 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2007328694 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2016462234 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2024966118 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2039767034 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2047377641 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2054653365 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2068634516 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2087159960 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2095207587 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2096992694 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2102065044 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2108184065 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2112363056 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2115227615 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2119052328 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2123553882 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2128974637 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2135899595 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2142446883 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2143602567 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2147988117 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2156567817 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2164899908 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2165261460 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2166421762 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2180539426 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2184722489 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2253610007 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2282352865 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2320249130 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2402690890 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2461419449 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2528605288 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2531261112 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2545096705 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2556743855 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2576969572 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2586179334 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2591830896 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2602856331 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2730854573 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2752487915 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2771105647 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W2772006900 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W3082459586 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W3101213977 @default.
- W2793853668 cites W4255375128 @default.
- W2793853668 doi "https://doi.org/10.1002/2017ef000688" @default.
- W2793853668 hasPublicationYear "2018" @default.
- W2793853668 type Work @default.
- W2793853668 sameAs 2793853668 @default.
- W2793853668 citedByCount "31" @default.
- W2793853668 countsByYear W27938536682018 @default.
- W2793853668 countsByYear W27938536682019 @default.
- W2793853668 countsByYear W27938536682020 @default.
- W2793853668 countsByYear W27938536682021 @default.
- W2793853668 countsByYear W27938536682022 @default.
- W2793853668 countsByYear W27938536682023 @default.
- W2793853668 crossrefType "journal-article" @default.
- W2793853668 hasAuthorship W2793853668A5053977045 @default.
- W2793853668 hasAuthorship W2793853668A5080473078 @default.
- W2793853668 hasAuthorship W2793853668A5091473750 @default.
- W2793853668 hasBestOaLocation W27938536681 @default.
- W2793853668 hasConcept C100970517 @default.
- W2793853668 hasConcept C105795698 @default.
- W2793853668 hasConcept C111368507 @default.
- W2793853668 hasConcept C115343472 @default.
- W2793853668 hasConcept C122048520 @default.
- W2793853668 hasConcept C127313418 @default.
- W2793853668 hasConcept C132651083 @default.
- W2793853668 hasConcept C168754636 @default.
- W2793853668 hasConcept C199491958 @default.
- W2793853668 hasConcept C205649164 @default.
- W2793853668 hasConcept C2778760939 @default.
- W2793853668 hasConcept C2779242930 @default.