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• W2800588813 abstract "Forestry’s long-term nature and associated uncertainties play against its consideration in land-use decisions. This study’s objective was assessing the implications of uncertainty on the feasibility of afforesting erodible land with natives. The New Zealand example has global relevance enabling: innovative statistical representation of climatic uncertainty, economic uncertainty analysis due to existing payments for services, and the profitability of long-rotation species due to Māori’s socio-cultural aspirations. We complemented a deterministic optimisation approach with Monte-Carlo methods to identify optimal afforestation areas representing uncertainty probabilistically. With stochastic dominance/efficiency tests, relevant to landowners, we identified that the uncertainty and profitability of long-rotation species increase at low discount rates, plausible due to low opportunity costs and inter-generational aspirations (not possible in competitive circumstances). At low discount rates, the high profitability odds of the long-rotation alternative compensate its high uncertainty and make it the preferred one even for highly risk-averse owners. With a probabilistic cost-benefit analysis, relevant to policymakers, we identified that the benefits necessary to cover erosion-reduction investments would need to be higher than expected to hedge against climatic uncertainty. These results were obtained through the uncertainty analysis. The methods/results covered in this study are relevant to land-use studies/models seeking to measure uncertainty impacts simply." @default.
• W2800588813 created "2018-05-17" @default.
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• W2800588813 date "2018-10-01" @default.
• W2800588813 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
• W2800588813 title "Implications of future climatic uncertainty on payments for forest ecosystem services: The case of the East Coast of New Zealand" @default.
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• W2800588813 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.04.010" @default.
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