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- W2804574884 abstract "Abstract Recently, the energy scarcity and environmental pollution have greatly promoted rapid development of the electric vehicles (EV) industry. In this context, we established a scenario analysis using system dynamics model to analyze the development of EV in China under policy incentives. Four scenarios were set in this paper: scenario 1 (Without any policy), scenario 2 (Only direct policy), scenario 3 (Only indirect policy), scenario 4 (Both direct & indirect policy). It is shown that the EV industry was in preliminary stage in 2010. After a period of development, in 2040, the total amount of EVs will reach 4.03, 8.61, 4.2 and 8.85 million in scenario 1–4. The results indicate that China's EV market penetration is mainly dominated by state policies, especially the financial supports. Reducing the governments’ financial supports for EVs will put EV manufacturers at a cost disadvantage in the automobile markets. In addition, because of our emerging carbon market and low average carbon price, participating in carbon trading market cannot promote a rapid growth by stimulating investment passion. In all, cutting the financial supports is not a good option, because the large-scale market penetration still requires the clear and strong policy incentives." @default.
- W2804574884 created "2018-06-01" @default.
- W2804574884 creator A5042796086 @default.
- W2804574884 creator A5047186891 @default.
- W2804574884 date "2018-09-01" @default.
- W2804574884 modified "2023-10-12" @default.
- W2804574884 title "Exploring the development of electric vehicles under policy incentives: A scenario-based system dynamics model" @default.
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- W2804574884 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.073" @default.
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