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• W2806007445 abstract "Extreme weather and climate-related events can have devastating impacts on people's lives andlivelihoods in developing countries, particularly in Africa. Understanding the influence ofanthropogenic climate change on extremes is key when addressing the impacts of events nowand in the future. Probabilistic event attribution aims to quantify the effect on individual eventsby analysing changes in probabilities of their occurrences. This thesis investigates thistechnique and its applications in an African context.It first assesses whether robust attribution results can be produced for events in West Africa. Acase study of high precipitation in 2012 concludes that the probability of such an event waslikely decreased due to anthropogenic climate change. The different climate model ensemblesanalysed produce complementary results, but the study highlights the importance of correctlymodelling the anthropogenic climate change impact on sea surface temperatures if results areto be robust in regions such as this with strong teleconnections.The application of event attribution is then studied in two key contexts relevant to addressingthe impacts of extreme weather events in Africa: national adaptation policy, focussing onaddressing urban flooding in Senegal, and international loss and damage policy. In both casesthere were suggestions for roles these scientific results could play, but there are barriers to theirinclusion at present. In Senegal little climate information is currently used in decision-making,and loss and damage policy lacks clarity around what it will address and therefore howscientific information can support this. In both cases stakeholders demonstrated limitedawareness of event attribution, highlighting the need to enhance understanding to encouragefurther dialogue about its relevance. To this end a participatory game focussing on eventattribution was developed and is shown here to be a useful tool for stakeholders to considerhow results could be relevant for their decisions." @default.
• W2806007445 created "2018-06-13" @default.
• W2806007445 creator A5022129642 @default.
• W2806007445 date "2017-01-01" @default.
• W2806007445 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
• W2806007445 title "Attributing extreme weather events in Africa to climate change : science, policy and practice" @default.
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