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• W2811330180 abstract "This study aimed to develop a diagnostic model that predicts acute pancreatitis (AP) risk before imaging.Emergency department patients with serum lipase elevated to 3 times the upper limit of normal or greater were identified retrospectively (September 1, 2013-August 31, 2015). An AP diagnosis was established by expert review of full hospitalization records. Candidate predictors included demographic and clinical characteristics at presentation. Using a derivation set, a multivariable logistic regression model and corresponding point-based scoring system was developed to predict AP. Discrimination accuracy and calibration were assessed in a separate validation set.In 319 eligible patients, 182 (57%) had AP. The final model (area under curve, 0.92) included 8 predictors: number of prior AP episodes; history of cholelithiasis; no abdominal surgery (prior 2 months); time elapsed from symptom onset; pain localized to epigastrium, of progressively worsening severity, and severity level at presentation; and extent of lipase elevation. At a diagnostic risk threshold of 8 points or higher (≥99%), the model identified AP with a sensitivity of 45%, and a specificity and a positive predictive value of 100%.In emergency department patients with lipase elevated to 3 times the upper limit of normal or greater, this model helps identify AP risk before imaging. Prospective validation studies are needed to confirm diagnostic accuracy." @default.
• W2811330180 created "2018-07-10" @default.
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• W2811330180 date "2018-08-01" @default.
• W2811330180 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
• W2811330180 title "A Clinical Model for the Early Diagnosis of Acute Pancreatitis in the Emergency Department" @default.
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• W2811330180 doi "https://doi.org/10.1097/mpa.0000000000001102" @default.
• W2811330180 hasPubMedId "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29975351" @default.
• W2811330180 hasPublicationYear "2018" @default.
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