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• W283439822 abstract "Describes what steps have been taken and/or are being considered to combat global warming ... policies to combat global warming will present a challenge to forecasters as they will affect firms ' input and output prices, labor costs, product demands, outputs, and employment ... discusses how the computable general equilibrium model can help to deal with such a challenge. A rapidly emerging issue forbusiness economists is forecasting the effects on businesses of policies to combat global warming by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly carbon dioxide. In California, for example, legislation enacted in 2006 provides for rolling back annual emissions to their 1990 level according to a specified timetable. The current plan for accomplishing this includes such actions as tightening up vehicle emissions standards, improving energy efficiency in buildings, increasing the use of low-carbon fuel by businesses and individuals, using more renewable energy for producing electricity, and adopting a cap-and-trade system for reducing emissions in a most cost-efficient manner. Various GHG measures also are under consideration or have been adopted nationally, regionally, in other states, and in other countries. CHALLENGE FOR BUSINESS FORECASTERS Steps to address GHGs can have significant implications for individual industries and businesses, depending on the inputs they use and the demand markets they service. There will be both winners and losers. Thus, business forecasters will increasingly need to identify how their firms' input and output prices, labor costs, product demands, outputs, and employment might be affected in the future. ONE KEY TOOL-CGE MODELING The use of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model can be a very helpful tool in this regard. A CGE model divides the economy into a large number of individual sectors that are known to interact with one another. Its basic framework utilizes a social accounting matrix based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and other sources. It enables one to trace through how a change in one sector affects other sectors, including variables like production, income, and jobs. Specifically, when supply and demand characteristics in one sector change, the model allows for things like price levels, wage rates, and production and sales to also change until both product and input markets are brought back into equilibrium. For example, if a global warming policy changes the cost of electricity paid for by a business, the model includes equations that factor in how output prices and production levels will respond. Likewise, if legislation or regulations reduce allowable miles-pergallon of gasoline for automobiles, the model incorporates equations that reflect induced changes in the mix of vehicles manufactured and sold. A CALIFORNIA EXAMPLE Embedded within a CGE model are things like production functions for individual goods and services, and consumption demand functions for consumers. For example, a CGE model called E-DRAM (Environmental Dynamic Revenue Assessment Model) is currently being used in California, in conjunction with several other types of models, by the state's Air Resources Board. …" @default.
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• W283439822 date "2009-10-01" @default.
• W283439822 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W283439822 title "Forecasting the Effects on Business of Global Warming Policies" @default.
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