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- W2883456054 abstract "Merapi, a steep stratovolcano north of Central Java’s capital Yogyakarta, is Indonesia’s most active volcano. Merapi volcano produces hazardous eruptions on average every 5-10 years and is feared for its deadly pyroclastic flow avalanches of rocks and gas that are generated when parts of new lava domes constructed during eruptions in the summit crater collapse and slide down the mountain’s steep flanks. The prior calculation of upcoming eruption is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk. Describing complex processes will involve different types of eruptions over different time scales. A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series is proposed for calculating the probabilities of future eruptionsand at times can be developed with modelling them to observe the hazard spatially. The first step of the analysis is to characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes. In most natural phenomena, lower magnitude events are more frequent, and the behavior of the eruption series may be biased by some events. Time-dependent series, or sequences including rare or extreme events, represented by very few data of large eruptions that require special methods of analysis, such as the extreme-value theory applied to non-homogeneous Poisson processes. General methodology is proposed for analyzing such processes attempting to obtain better estimates of the volcanic hazard. The analysis is done in statistical method and probabilistic analysis of volcanic time series. This study can be a suggestion for the government and community to make a preparation to decrease the potential risk at the future in long term prediction." @default.
- W2883456054 created "2018-08-03" @default.
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- W2883456054 date "2018-01-01" @default.
- W2883456054 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W2883456054 title "Probabilistic and statistical analysis of historical activity of Merapi volcano, Indonesia" @default.
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- W2883456054 doi "https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5047352" @default.
- W2883456054 hasPublicationYear "2018" @default.
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