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- W2885204062 abstract "This thesis is divided into three research objectives. The first is to examinethe intertemporal solvency of India’s current account balance. The secondobjective is to investigate the sustainability of India’s current accountbalance. The first two objectives reflect India’s ability to repay andwillingness to repay, respectively. Finally, the third objective is to uncoverthe major drivers of India’s current account balance. To achieve theseobjectives, the thesis uses quarterly data from the post-liberalization periodfrom 1996-2014.First, the intertemporal solvency is examined by applying the two variantsof the present value models of the current account. The theoreticalframework is based on the permanent income hypothesis, in which agents areforward-looking. We test a benchmark model in which the agents’information set includes only shocks to domestic variables, and an extendedmodel in which shocks to external variables are added. The econometricresults show that both the models are able to trace the actual currentaccount path. However, present value model that includes changes in theexternal variables outperforms the one that excludes them.Second, the sustainability of India’s current account balance is examined.We use an intertemporal model to test if the current account balance inIndia is sustainable or not. The results suggest that India’s current accountis sustainable once the cointegration relationship accounts for endogenousstructural breaks. As a next step, we calculate the time-series of asustainable current account path and then apply a fan chart approach forprediction. Finally, robustness checks are done by predicting an in-sampleforecast. Third, we identify the major domestic and external factors that affect India’scurrent account balance. For this purpose, we test a benchmark empiricalmodel and then extend the model by incorporating external factors relevantto the Indian economy. Various hypotheses such as Ricardian equivalenceversus Twin-deficit hypothesis and Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis were tested.The econometric results suggest that Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis isrejected; implying private saving only partially finances private investment.We also found evidence in favor of Twin-deficit hypothesis and againstRicardian equivalence. The results also indicate the importance of oil pricevolatility and foreign income in affecting India’s current account balance." @default.
- W2885204062 created "2018-08-22" @default.
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- W2885204062 date "2018-01-01" @default.
- W2885204062 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
- W2885204062 title "THE INTERTEMPORAL APPROACH TO INDIA’S CURRENT ACCOUNT DYNAMICS: SOLVENCY, SUSTAINABILITY, AND DETERMINANTS" @default.
- W2885204062 hasPublicationYear "2018" @default.
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