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- W2885763805 abstract "The observed substantial loss of Arctic sea ice has raised prospects of a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean within the foreseeable future. In this review, we summarize our current understanding of the most likely trajectory of the Arctic sea-ice cover towards this state.The future trajectory of the Arctic sea-ice cover can be described through a deterministic component arising primarily from future greenhouse gas emissions, and a chaotic component arising from internal variability. The deterministic component is expected to cause a largely ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer for less than 2 ∘C global warming relative to pre-industrial levels. To keep chances below 5 % that the Arctic Ocean will largely be ice free in a given year, total future CO2 emissions must remain below 500 Gt.The Arctic Ocean will become ice free during summer before mid-century unless greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly reduced." @default.
- W2885763805 created "2018-08-22" @default.
- W2885763805 creator A5052095932 @default.
- W2885763805 creator A5072258471 @default.
- W2885763805 date "2018-09-26" @default.
- W2885763805 modified "2023-10-12" @default.
- W2885763805 title "The Trajectory Towards a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Ocean" @default.
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- W2885763805 doi "https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0113-2" @default.
- W2885763805 hasPubMedCentralId "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/6411203" @default.
- W2885763805 hasPubMedId "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30931246" @default.
- W2885763805 hasPublicationYear "2018" @default.
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