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- W2889461496 abstract "Abstract Aim Contemporary climate change is predicted to impact all levels of biodiversity, including intraspecific genetic diversity, the evolutionary basis for future adaptation. While numerous studies use species distribution models ( SDM s) to predict species’ future distributions, relatively few investigate potential climatic impacts on the spatial structure of genetic diversity, and how it varies across species ranges. We revisited phylogeographic data for three New Zealand forest beetles to predict the effects of climate change on the geographic distributions, genetic diversity and phylogeographic structure for each species. Location New Zealand Methods We used ensemble SDM s to predict potential distributions for Agyrtodes labralis (Leiodidae), Brachynopus scutellaris (Staphylinidae) and Epistranus lawsoni (Zopheridae) in 2035, 2065 and 2100. To assess the impact of predicted range loss on genetic diversity and phylogeographic structure, we estimated haplotype and nucleotide diversity, Φ ST , Average Taxonomic Distinctness (AvTax), Phylogenetic Diversity ( PD ) and Net Relatedness Index ( NRI ) under current and future climatic scenarios, excluding sequences from localities predicted to become unsuitable. We tested whether predicted population loss was spatially clustered and how losses were distributed across the phylogenies of each species. Results Agyrtodes labralis is predicted to lose parts of its current distribution by 2100, with the loss of 50% of unique haplotypes and a significant reduction in PD , while Brachynopus scutellaris and Epistranus lawsoni will likely experience an expansion in climatically suitable area and little change in genetic diversity. Brachynopus scutellaris populations are predicted to be more phylogenetically clustered than expected by 2100, but changes in AvTax were negligible for all species. Main conclusions We demonstrate that the loss of genetic diversity under climate change is significant; however, intraspecific lineages with deep genetic divergences are widely distributed, buffering against greater change in phylogeographic structure. For species with strong geographic clustering of genetic diversity, climate change impacts may be quite different." @default.
- W2889461496 created "2018-09-07" @default.
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- W2889461496 date "2018-08-31" @default.
- W2889461496 modified "2023-10-05" @default.
- W2889461496 title "Persistence of genetic diversity and phylogeographic structure of three New Zealand forest beetles under climate change" @default.
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- W2889461496 doi "https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12834" @default.
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