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• W2890691765 abstract "This paper surveys the literature since 1993 on pseudo out-of-sample evaluation of inflation forecasts in the United States and conducts an extensive empirical analysis that recapitulates and clarifies this literature using a consistent data set and methodology. The literature review and empirical results are gloomy and indicate that Phillips curve forecasts (broadly interpreted as forecasts using an activity variable) are better than other multivariate forecasts, but their performance is episodic, sometimes better than and sometimes worse than a good (not naive) univariate benchmark. We provide some preliminary evidence characterizing successful forecasting episodes." @default.
• W2890691765 created "2018-09-27" @default.
• W2890691765 creator A5052842724 @default.
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• W2890691765 date "2008-09-01" @default.
• W2890691765 modified "2023-10-14" @default.
• W2890691765 title "Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts" @default.
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• W2890691765 doi "https://doi.org/10.3386/w14322" @default.
• W2890691765 hasPublicationYear "2008" @default.
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