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• W2890764921 abstract "Introduction and summary Improvements in worker quality due to changes in the distribution of education and work experience are among the key determinants of the economy's potential rate of growth. The rate of such improvements is thus of substantial interest to monetary and fiscal policymakers concerned with maintaining balance between aggregate supply and demand. It also is of importance to officials charged with planning for the future of programs such as Social Security, whose projected financial condition is highly sensitive to assumptions about long-term economic growth. In this article we provide new estimates and forecasts of the rate of improvement in worker quality. Consistent with previous research, we find that changes in the distribution of workers' education and work experience levels account for a significant portion of the growth in labor productivity. In particular, of the 2.7 percent average growth rate in labor productivity since 1965, we find that about 0.22 of a percentage point is attributable to the growth of labor quality. We also find that this contribution has fluctuated significantly over the last 35 years. For instance, as recently as the late 1980s and early 1990s, improvements in worker skill levels were adding about 0.40 percentage points per year to the growth of output. However, by the end of the 1990s, this figure had fallen to about 0.18 percentage points. Our forecasts call for a further decline to about 0.05 percentage points by 2010. The recent figures represent the combined effects of two long-running demographic trends and a partially offsetting business-cycle effect. The two demographic trends are the continuing increase in the education levels of the labor force and the movement of workers toward experience levels associated with higher wages and productivity. A major factor in the latter trend has been the aging of the Baby Boom generation, many of whom are now in their peak earnings years. The positive effects of demographic change are partially offset by what has recently been the relatively faster employment growth of low-education and low-experience workers, the typical pattern in a business-cycle expansion. Our forecast of a declining growth contribution from worker quality derives from two sources. First, we expect a slight decline in the rate of educational gains. Second, and more important, as the decade progresses, a significant portion of the Baby Boom generation will move beyond the highest earnings years that most workers experience in their early 50s. Indeed, by the end of the decade, the leading edge of the Baby Boom will be at an age associated with lower than average wage rates. At the same time, the age ranges associated with maximum wages and productivity will become populated with the smaller cohorts born in the late 1960s and early 1970s. As a result, the change in experience levels will turn from a positive to a negative factor for worker quality growth. We also examine the gap in labor quality between the employed and the pool of available workers, those who, while not working, currently report that they want a job. We find that available workers typically have predicted wages and productivity that are 15 percent to 20 percent lower than the employed. Over the course of a business cycle expansion, most potential workers with higher skill levels become employed, which tends to expand this gap. The long business cycle expansion that began in the early 1990s is particularly notable in pushing the gap in quality between the employed and the pool of available workers to nearly 23 percent, its highest level in our data. The compositional changes in the labor force we study can obscure the effects of changes in labor supply and labor demand on the price of an hour of constant quality labor. This may make it more difficult to evaluate macroeconomic theories that have implications for the behavior of real wages. …" @default.
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• W2890764921 date "2001-12-22" @default.
• W2890764921 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W2890764921 title "Growth in Worker Quality" @default.
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