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- W2891746872 abstract "In seasonal climate predictions, the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is still a challenge, in spite of the wide usage of coupled climate models. Therefore, in this article the predictability of the monsoon including the atmospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies is investigated, based on the reforecast data during 1992–2011 in two coupled prediction systems: GloSea5 from the Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) and BCC_CSM1.1m from the Beijing Climate Center (BCC). The results show that the interannual variability of 850 hPa zonal wind over East Asia and the northwest Pacific can be well reproduced, and the prediction skill is significant in both systems. The Philippine anticyclone is highly predictable over the tropical northwest Pacific, and it transfers the predictable signals from the winter El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) into the climate prediction in East Asia and rainfall prediction in the Yangtze River basin. Two dynamical indices of the EASM show that the prediction skills in these two systems are comparable. BCC_CSM1.1m tends to overestimate the coupling between the monsoon and ENSO, while GloSea5 shows a similar magnitude to the observations. Besides, a simple statistical downscaling method is adopted in this article based on the predictable circulation data, which provides an efficient tool to improve the raw rainfall forecast skill over China." @default.
- W2891746872 created "2018-09-27" @default.
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- W2891746872 date "2018-10-01" @default.
- W2891746872 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
- W2891746872 title "Evaluation and statistical downscaling of East Asian summer monsoon forecasting in BCC and MOHC seasonal prediction systems" @default.
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- W2891746872 doi "https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3405" @default.
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