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- W2891870025 abstract "Abstract. Conventional flood risk methods typically focus on estimation at a single location, which is inadequate for civil infrastructure systems such as road or railway infrastructure. This is because rainfall extremes are spatially dependent, so that to understand overall system risk it is necessary to assess the interconnected elements of the system jointly. For example, when designing evacuation routes it is necessary to understand the risk of one part of the system failing given that another region is flooded or exceeds the level at which evacuation becomes necessary. Similarly, failure of any single part of a road section (e.g., a flooded river crossing) may lead to the wider system’s failure (i.e. the entire road becomes inoperable). This study demonstrates a spatially dependent Intensity-Duration-Frequency curve framework that can be used to estimate flood risk across multiple catchments, accounting for dependence both in space and across different critical storm durations. The framework is demonstrated via a case study of a highway upgrade, comprising five bridge crossings where the upstream contributing catchments each have different times of concentration. The results show that conditional and unconditional design flows can differ by a factor of two, highlighting the importance of taking an integrated approach. There is also a reduction in the failure probability of the overall system compared with the case of no spatial dependence between storms. The results demonstrate the potential uses of spatially dependent Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves and suggest the need for more conservative design estimates to take into account conditional risks." @default.
- W2891870025 created "2018-09-27" @default.
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- W2891870025 date "2018-09-04" @default.
- W2891870025 modified "2023-10-16" @default.
- W2891870025 title "Spatially dependent Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves to support the design of civil infrastructure systems" @default.
- W2891870025 doi "https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-393" @default.
- W2891870025 hasPublicationYear "2018" @default.
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