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- W2893710844 abstract "Abstract Observed variability is used to evaluate simulations of current and future changes in extremes of tropical rainfall. Although low-altitude moisture increases with tropical warming, the response of rainfall characteristics is more complex. The wettest part of the atmospheric circulation is becoming wetter, whereas dry season rainfall is decreasing yet the position of the rainy belt shifts in space over time. Substantial decadal variability related to characteristics of El Nino Southern Oscillation alters the partitioning of rainfall over tropical land and ocean. Present-day variability in rainfall and its extremes and relationships with surface temperature over land are therefore not a reliable indicator of the response to climate change. Considering the 99th percentile rainfall intensity, the tropic-wide response to surface temperature change across climate models is, however, strongly linked to future responses: the observed 10%–17%/K extreme precipitation response diagnosed from variability is approximately equivalent to a 4%–7%/K climate change response, offering an emergent constraint on future changes in precipitation extremes. How precipitation extremes change locally in a warming climate are of utmost importance for impacts and adaptation strategies yet regional projections remain one of the greatest challenges for climate science." @default.
- W2893710844 created "2018-10-05" @default.
- W2893710844 creator A5051257601 @default.
- W2893710844 creator A5058725877 @default.
- W2893710844 date "2019-01-01" @default.
- W2893710844 modified "2023-10-16" @default.
- W2893710844 title "Evaluating Large-Scale Variability and Change in Tropical Rainfall and Its Extremes" @default.
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- W2893710844 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-809248-4.00005-4" @default.
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