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- W2893883277 abstract "The Aroa River basin is the geographic unit of work, the present research addresses the issue of the assessment of the climatic impact on the water resources of a river basin. A monthly hydrological simulation was applied (SIHIM model) to transform future precipitation into runoff. The model was previously calibrated with data from the Aroa River in Puente Boqueron (r = 0.73 and 0.22% the difference between simulated and observed flows). The runoff change at the basin outlet was evaluated using 2036-2065 projected precipitation data, scenario RCP 4.5, from to two global climate models: HADGEM2-ES and MIROC5. Three data sources (CCAFS,KNMI and ETA-Inpe) and three scaling methods (Delta-CCAFS, Bias Correction and Quantil Mapping) were compared. The results indicate a moderate impact of climate change on basin precipitation-runoff but in a dissimilar way depending on climate models, data sources and scale reduction methods. The average precipitation anomaly projected in the upper Aroa river basin for the 50s would be according to CCAFS data: 8% (HADGEM2-ES) and 0.5% (MIROC5); from KNMI data: 2% (HADGEM2 ES) and 10% (MIROC5); from ETA data: 12% (HADGEM2 ES) 3% (MIROC5). Considering the estimates of the factor change factor (Delta), the Aroa river (discharge to the sea) annual runoff anomaly (baseline 10.2 m3 /s), would be according to the HADGEM2-ES model: CCAFS: -13%; KNMI: 1% and ETA: -33%. According to MIROC5, anomalies would be: CCAFS: 3%; KNMI: 34% and ETA: -10%" @default.
- W2893883277 created "2018-10-05" @default.
- W2893883277 creator A5074058708 @default.
- W2893883277 date "2017-01-01" @default.
- W2893883277 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
- W2893883277 title "Modelación de la respuesta hidrológica al cambio climático en la Cuenca del Río Aroa, a partir de proyecciones climáticas CMIP5" @default.
- W2893883277 hasPublicationYear "2017" @default.
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