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• W2896584913 abstract "When perturbed ecosystems undergo rapid and non-linear changes, this can result in ‘regime shifts’ to an entirely different ecological state. The need to understand the extent, nature, magnitude and reversibility of these changes is urgent given the profound effects that humans are having on the natural world. It remains very challenging to empirically document non-linear changes and regime shifts within complex, real ecological communities, or even to demonstrate such shifts in simplified experimental systems. General ecosystem models, which simulate the dynamics of entire ecological communities based on a mechanistic representation of ecological processes, provide an alternative and novel way to project ecosystem changes across all scales and trophic levels and to forecast impact thresholds beyond which dramatic or irreversible changes may occur. We model non-linear changes in four terrestrial biomes subjected to human removal of plant biomass, such as occurs through agricultural land-use change. We find that irreversible and non-linear responses are predicted to be common where removal of vegetation exceeds 80% (a level that occurs across nearly 10% of the terrestrial surface), especially for organisms at higher trophic levels and in less productive ecosystems such as drylands. Very large, irreversible changes to the entire ecosystem structure are expected at levels of vegetation removal akin to those in the most intensively used real-world ecosystems. Our results suggest that the projected 21 st century rapid increases in agricultural land conversion to feed an expanding human population, may lead to widespread trophic cascades and in some cases irreversible changes to the structure of ecological communities." @default.
• W2896584913 created "2018-10-26" @default.
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• W2896584913 date "2018-10-10" @default.
• W2896584913 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
• W2896584913 title "Non-linear changes in modelled terrestrial ecosystems subjected to perturbations" @default.
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• W2896584913 doi "https://doi.org/10.1101/439059" @default.
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