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• W289702403 abstract "AS HORRIBLE AS THE SEPT. 11 attacks were for the United States, repercussions are being felt throughout the world, as well. Some equity markets abroad declined more than Wall Street, based on both fears of corporate losses and the assumption that the disaster pushed the U.S. into recession, if it was not there already. Coordinated efforts by the central banks of most industrialized nations had little initial impact, but one month after the attacks, most stock indices were back to levels seen in early September. Now, looking toward 2002, what can we expect? The already-vulnerable economies of Latin America will suffer further as the region has long awaited, and in some cases depended on, the expected pick-up in global economic activity led by the U.S. The falls in consumer and business sentiment, along with an expected decline in foreign direct investment (FDI), will create an even more uncertain future. Concerns about the expected recovery in capital inflows has been replaced by worries about debt servicing abilities and the financing of current account deficits, particularly in Argentina and Brazil. Eastern Europe is somewhat insulated from the downturn in the U.S., with its primary trading partner remaining the euro-zone. However, like Latin America, these countries will see a downturn in FDI levels for the remainder of the year, as risk-aversion becomes the name of the game for international investors. If the euro-zone recovers before the U.S., which seems likely at this point, eastern Europe could export its way out of any short-term difficulties. The curbed appetite for high-tech goods in the U.S. is starting to be seen in Japan, as well, but will have its greatest impact on the non-Japan Asian (NJA) countries that base their economies on the once lucrative computer and telecommunications sectors. Singapore and Taiwan top the list, but South Korea and Malaysia deserve mention as well. The first two countries peg their fortunes to all things high-tech, much more so than the others, and with the global slowdown accelerating throughout 2001, these countries entered cyclical recessions that were originally due to end in early 2002. Given the recent crisis, however, it looks as if a U-shaped recovery may become more of an L-shape in these Asian countries, at least for this year and next. Despite the grim combination of rapidly falling confidence and bear markets running amok in the short-term, we find some reason for optimism looking into 2002. The U.S. likely will end this year officially in recession, but the combination of more aggressive monetary easing by the Fed and a shift to a more expansionary fiscal plan in Washington suggests that things will pick up rapidly as the temperature warms in 2002. Likewise the euro-zone should see its own recovery fairly soon, although Germany might have a brief recession in the colder months of this year. Most countries within the monetary union are already providing some degree of fiscal stimulus, and the European Central Bank (ECB) has started easing to a degree that will prime the euro-zone for a recovery. …" @default.
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• W289702403 date "2001-11-01" @default.
• W289702403 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W289702403 title "Global Outlook: Not All Grim" @default.
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