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- W2897092741 abstract "This article analyses services inflation dynamics in Brazil, focusing on the Services Inflation Persistence Puzzle, for monthly data from January 2004 to February 2016. We apply a time-varying parameter (TVP) approach, via a Kalman filter, to estimate hybrid Phillips curves and compare inflation inertia for tradable goods and services inflation. Aggregate Brazilian Extended Consumer Price Index inflation serves as a benchmark. To justify the TVP analysis, parameter instability and structural change tests are implemented, based on OLS and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) frameworks. The main results are as follows: (i) the TVP approach is relevant due to observed instability in some parameters estimated; (ii) inflation expectation coefficients are higher than lagged inflation in all calculations, but inflation inertia is not negligible at all; (iii) services inflation persistence ranges from 27 to 36%, whereas tradable goods inflation persistence ranges from 36 to 47%, providing evidence of the Services Inflation Persistence Puzzle in Brazil; (iv) from 2009 onwards an increase in one percentage point in real wages raises monthly services inflation rate by 0.02 to 0.03 percentage point; (v) there is evidence that cost-push pressures, due to wage increases in the service sector, are more important to explain services inflation than demand pressures from early 2009 to mid-2014." @default.
- W2897092741 created "2018-10-26" @default.
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- W2897092741 date "2018-10-15" @default.
- W2897092741 modified "2023-10-16" @default.
- W2897092741 title "Services inflation dynamics and persistence puzzle in Brazil: a time-varying parameter approach" @default.
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- W2897092741 doi "https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1527456" @default.
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