Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W2899088136> ?p ?o ?g. }
- W2899088136 abstract "Forecasting elections -- a challenging, high-stakes problem -- is the subject of much uncertainty, subjectivity, and media scrutiny. To shed light on this process, we develop a method for forecasting elections from the perspective of dynamical systems. Our model borrows ideas from epidemiology, and we use polling data from United States elections to determine its parameters. Surprisingly, our general model performs as well as popular forecasters for the 2012 and 2016 U.S. races for president, senators, and governors. Although contagion and voting dynamics differ, our work suggests a valuable approach to elucidate how elections are related across states. It also illustrates the effect of accounting for uncertainty in different ways, provides an example of data-driven forecasting using dynamical systems, and suggests avenues for future research on political elections. We conclude with our forecasts for the senatorial and gubernatorial races on 6~November 2018, which we posted on 5 November 2018." @default.
- W2899088136 created "2018-11-09" @default.
- W2899088136 creator A5019768976 @default.
- W2899088136 creator A5021486216 @default.
- W2899088136 creator A5058684689 @default.
- W2899088136 creator A5072557914 @default.
- W2899088136 date "2018-11-05" @default.
- W2899088136 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
- W2899088136 title "Forecasting elections using compartmental models of infection" @default.
- W2899088136 cites W1489423786 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W1593665090 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W1878853999 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W1905389911 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W1921511217 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W1975488571 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W1978213744 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W1982076499 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W1988333745 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W1995410068 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2000359198 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2002944058 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2017793248 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2023795026 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2048121899 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2057451912 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2058105398 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2078426401 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2078980460 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2086627840 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2092468239 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2099865247 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2104595316 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2115414622 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2117206995 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2145137020 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2148301044 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2149084727 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2161728228 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2162797709 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2238301511 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2530778641 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2582743722 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2606564740 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2614852519 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2775990732 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2793188910 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2883299405 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W2996812058 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W3124473222 @default.
- W2899088136 cites W3125151278 @default.
- W2899088136 hasPublicationYear "2018" @default.
- W2899088136 type Work @default.
- W2899088136 sameAs 2899088136 @default.
- W2899088136 citedByCount "0" @default.
- W2899088136 crossrefType "posted-content" @default.
- W2899088136 hasAuthorship W2899088136A5019768976 @default.
- W2899088136 hasAuthorship W2899088136A5021486216 @default.
- W2899088136 hasAuthorship W2899088136A5058684689 @default.
- W2899088136 hasAuthorship W2899088136A5072557914 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConcept C111472728 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConcept C111919701 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConcept C118084267 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConcept C121332964 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConcept C12713177 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConcept C138885662 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConcept C149782125 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConcept C154945302 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConcept C162324750 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConcept C17744445 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConcept C199539241 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConcept C202889954 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConcept C204854418 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConcept C2776050585 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConcept C41008148 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConcept C520049643 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConcept C62520636 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConcept C79379906 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConcept C94625758 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConceptScore W2899088136C111472728 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConceptScore W2899088136C111919701 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConceptScore W2899088136C118084267 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConceptScore W2899088136C121332964 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConceptScore W2899088136C12713177 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConceptScore W2899088136C138885662 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConceptScore W2899088136C149782125 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConceptScore W2899088136C154945302 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConceptScore W2899088136C162324750 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConceptScore W2899088136C17744445 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConceptScore W2899088136C199539241 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConceptScore W2899088136C202889954 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConceptScore W2899088136C204854418 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConceptScore W2899088136C2776050585 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConceptScore W2899088136C41008148 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConceptScore W2899088136C520049643 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConceptScore W2899088136C62520636 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConceptScore W2899088136C79379906 @default.
- W2899088136 hasConceptScore W2899088136C94625758 @default.
- W2899088136 hasLocation W28990881361 @default.
- W2899088136 hasOpenAccess W2899088136 @default.
- W2899088136 hasPrimaryLocation W28990881361 @default.