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- W2900451721 abstract "Space environment forecasts are based on ab initio modeling of the solar wind (SW) wherein solar magnetic fields and plasmas are propagated from an initial/boundary model source surface in the lower solar corona out to 1 au. Testing of these space environment forecasts relative to in situ measurements at 1 au typically shows uncertainties in the arrival times of fast SW streams of the order of a day, with broad distributions, means/medians of the order of half a day, and large variations between models but no definite winner. Here the effect of flow-line (FL) wandering due to the higher frequency velocity fluctuations within the turbulent SW on the arrival-time statistics of parcels of SW plasma transiting through the inner heliosphere out to 1 au is evaluated for a range of cutoff timescales in the velocity fluctuations. Used for this evaluation are in situ SW velocity measurements onboard Wind at 1 au, detailed spectral analysis of these measurements, WKB extrapolations to the inner heliosphere and simple application of a newly extended theoretical calculation of the mean SWFL cross-flow and flow-aligned displacements from the measured spectra. It is found that the velocity fluctuations near 1 au have little effect on the arrival times. The effect of the velocity fluctuations increases sunward, however, to a level sufficient to explain the large and broadly distributed uncertainties found in the testing of the forecasts." @default.
- W2900451721 created "2018-11-29" @default.
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- W2900451721 date "2018-11-15" @default.
- W2900451721 modified "2023-10-10" @default.
- W2900451721 title "Flow-line Wandering in the Turbulent Solar Wind and Space Environment Forecasts" @default.
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- W2900451721 doi "https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/aae47e" @default.
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