Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W2900523013> ?p ?o ?g. }
- W2900523013 endingPage "6617" @default.
- W2900523013 startingPage "6599" @default.
- W2900523013 abstract "Accurate and precise forecasting of the Indian monsoon is important for the socio-economic security of India, with improvements in agriculture and associated sectors from prediction of the monsoon onset. In this study we establish the skill of the UK Met Office coupled initialized global seasonal forecasting system, GloSea5-GC2, in forecasting Indian monsoon onset. We build on previous work that has demonstrated the good skill of GloSea5 at forecasting interannual variations of the seasonal mean Indian monsoon using measures of large-scale circulation and local precipitation. We analyze the summer hindcasts from a set of three springtime start-dates in late April/early May for the 20-year hindcast period (1992–2011). The hindcast set features at least fifteen ensemble members for each year and is analyzed using five different objective monsoon indices. These indices are designed to examine large and local-scale measures of the monsoon circulation, hydrological changes, tropospheric temperature gradient, or rainfall for single value (area-averaged) or grid-point measures of the Indian monsoon onset. There is significant correlation between onset dates in the model and those found in reanalysis. Indices based on large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic indices are better at estimating monsoon onset in the model rather than local-scale dynamical and hydrological indices. This can be attributed to the model’s better representation of large-scale dynamics compared to local-scale features. GloSea5 may not be able to predict the exact date of monsoon onset over India, but this study shows that the model has a good ability at predicting category-wise monsoon onset, using early, normal or late tercile categories. Using a grid-point local rainfall onset index, we note that the forecast skill is highest over parts of central India, the Gangetic plains, and parts of coastal India—all zones of extensive agriculture in India. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing in the model improves the forecast skill of monsoon onset when using a large-scale circulation index, with late monsoon onset coinciding with El Niño conditions and early monsoon onset more common in La Niña years. The results of this study suggest that GloSea5’s ensemble-mean forecast may be used for reliable Indian monsoon onset prediction a month in advance despite systematic model errors." @default.
- W2900523013 created "2018-11-29" @default.
- W2900523013 creator A5028766777 @default.
- W2900523013 creator A5038960814 @default.
- W2900523013 creator A5053405005 @default.
- W2900523013 creator A5062809737 @default.
- W2900523013 creator A5077279145 @default.
- W2900523013 date "2018-11-24" @default.
- W2900523013 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W2900523013 title "Indian summer monsoon onset forecast skill in the UK Met Office initialized coupled seasonal forecasting system (GloSea5-GC2)" @default.
- W2900523013 cites W107474316 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W1597737143 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W1835770454 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W1863736739 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W1920069378 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W1963946773 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W1968519341 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W1970212762 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W1975019927 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W1986213398 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W1987646804 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W1989742661 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W1994871070 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W1995622703 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W1998196570 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2001313686 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2012699838 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2013075052 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2017722058 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2019255172 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2023439090 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2029588331 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2042804793 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2043236329 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2050206916 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2057924774 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2063517471 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2066352855 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2074567659 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2076241402 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2079827920 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2082409570 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2091256162 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2094340435 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2099202096 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2100244618 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2101880809 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2109931598 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2110603701 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2113521146 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2113951488 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2114494628 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2115180998 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2118002644 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2121745948 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2122092212 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2127475088 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2140963059 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2142021968 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2144506020 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2147654971 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2148457324 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2149919760 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2152802731 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2153651715 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2160836964 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2166992193 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2174432617 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2174952553 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2178076849 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2179472678 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2180148207 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2274061374 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2296408122 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2341663417 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2346030007 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2460146966 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2508348866 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2536941549 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W2789280073 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W4211257092 @default.
- W2900523013 cites W4232000370 @default.
- W2900523013 doi "https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4536-1" @default.
- W2900523013 hasPublicationYear "2018" @default.
- W2900523013 type Work @default.
- W2900523013 sameAs 2900523013 @default.
- W2900523013 citedByCount "22" @default.
- W2900523013 countsByYear W29005230132019 @default.
- W2900523013 countsByYear W29005230132020 @default.
- W2900523013 countsByYear W29005230132021 @default.
- W2900523013 countsByYear W29005230132022 @default.
- W2900523013 countsByYear W29005230132023 @default.
- W2900523013 crossrefType "journal-article" @default.
- W2900523013 hasAuthorship W2900523013A5028766777 @default.
- W2900523013 hasAuthorship W2900523013A5038960814 @default.
- W2900523013 hasAuthorship W2900523013A5053405005 @default.
- W2900523013 hasAuthorship W2900523013A5062809737 @default.
- W2900523013 hasAuthorship W2900523013A5077279145 @default.