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- W2904683716 abstract "ABSTRAK. Inflasi secara umum mengindikasikan suatu kenaikan harga yang terjadi terus-menerus dalam perekonomian. Angka inflasi diharapkan tidak mengalami peningkatan agar tidak terjadi permasalahan perekonomian. Data inflasi di Indonesia yang diambil dari Bank Indonesia (BI) menunjukkan suatu fluktuasi yang berkisar antara 2,41% hingga 18,38%. Melihat betapa pentingnya angka inflasi bagi negara, suatu metode peramalan yang tepat diperlukan dalam meramalkan angka inflasi. Nilai eror terkecil digunakan dalam pemilihan metode peramalan. Pengujian peramalan menggunakan Pemulusan Eksponensial Ganda dilakukan dengan memakai data inflasi bulanan di Indonesia periode Januari 2005 hingga April 2014 untuk 48 bulan ke depan. Hasil dari pengujian metode peramalan menunjukkan bahwa semakin besar rentang waktu yang diramalkan semakin besar eror yang dihasilkan. Berdasarkan hasil peramalan, laju inflasi pada bulan Mei 2018 sedikit menurun dari bulan April 2018 yaitu 3,37% pada Mei 2018 dan 3,41% pada April 2018. ABSTRACT. Inflation generally indicates a rising prices that occurs continously in economy. The rate of inflation hopefully not increasing so that a problem in economy will not occured. The data of inflation in Indonesia that collected from Bank Indonesia (BI) is showing a fluctuation that ranging from 2,41% to 18,38%. Seeing how necessary inflation rate for a country, an appropriate forcasting method is needed in order to forcast inflation rate. The smallest error is used in choosing the forcasting method. A testing of Double Exponential Smoothing on forcasting is done by using monthly infation data of Indonesia from January 2005 until April 2014 for the next 48 months. The result of the testing shows that the longer the time predicted the bigger the forcasting error. Based on forcasting result, the inflation rate on May 2018 is slightly decreasing from April 2018 which is 3,37% on May 2018 and 3,41% on April 2018." @default.
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- W2904683716 date "2018-09-18" @default.
- W2904683716 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W2904683716 title "Meramalkan Laju Inflasi Menggunakan Metode Pemulusan Eksponensial Ganda" @default.
- W2904683716 doi "https://doi.org/10.24815/jda.v1i1.11863" @default.
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