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• W2904731324 abstract "Abstract Signals prior to tropical cyclone (TC) intensification are important for improving TC intensity forecasts. The existence of such signals has been noted in previous studies of satellite‐borne observations and lightning. Vertical motions can enhance TCs via the transportation of heat to the warm core; thus, we hypothesized they might signal TC intensification. This study separately examined the processes of updrafts and downdrafts, which are both concentrated within the eyewall surrounding the warm core. The analysis focused on the intensification of Typhoon Hagupit (2008). Numerical experiments were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model to elucidate the changing structure of the vertical motions and their effects on the timing of TC intensification. A control (CTL) simulation and an idealized No‐Land experiment both reproduced the storm structure well, whereas a Half‐Bogus (Half‐Moisture) experiment generated less‐organized TC core structures (weakened moisture convection). Upward motions were found to signal TC intensification with lead times of 1.67–4.50 hr in all experiments. Downward motions apparently signaled TC intensification with lead times of 0.67–4.50 hr in the Half‐Bogus and Half‐Moisture experiments. However, the lead‐lag relationship between downward motion and TC intensification was unclear in the CTL and No‐Land experiments because of the large amount of water vapor in the enhanced eyewall. Thermodynamic analysis showed the latent heat consumed in the downdrafts in the CTL and No‐Land experiments was much greater than in the two other experiments, which resulted in the smallest heating contribution in the downdrafts and a weak relationship with TC intensification." @default.
• W2904731324 created "2018-12-22" @default.
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• W2904731324 date "2019-01-01" @default.
• W2904731324 modified "2023-10-15" @default.
• W2904731324 title "Vertical Motions Prior to the Intensification of Simulated Typhoon Hagupit (2008)" @default.
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• W2904731324 doi "https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jc014086" @default.
• W2904731324 hasPublicationYear "2019" @default.
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