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- W2909205938 abstract "This chapter reports some results in the literature as well as some new results that show the potential of extending the standard Theta method. It describes the data used to produce the results as well as how performance is measured. Forecasting performance is measured by means of the symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE). The standard theta line considers a single linear trend that is calculated using all data points of the seasonally adjusted series. However, as is often in practice, the trend of a time series changes over time, so that the long-term and short-term trends may exhibit different directions. In such cases, a Theta method that is simply based on the long-term trend might be an over- or underestimation of the short-term reality. The chapter reviews the available open source packages and functions for the statistical software that can be used to apply the Theta method in practice." @default.
- W2909205938 created "2019-01-25" @default.
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- W2909205938 date "2019-01-11" @default.
- W2909205938 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W2909205938 title "θ-Reflections from the Next Generation of Forecasters" @default.
- W2909205938 doi "https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119320784.ch6" @default.
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