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• W2910262810 abstract "This study, using monthly micro data on firms’ forecasted and realized production quantities, presents new evidence of the uncertainty of production forecasts. Forecast errors are heterogeneous among individual manufacturers. Firms operating in the information and communications technology-related industries, firms producing investment goods, and smaller firms exhibit greater forecast uncertainty. Forecast uncertainty is greater in the contractionary phases of the business cycle. The uncertainty measures that are calculated from the micro data can predict macroeconomic fluctuations. Additionally, the explanatory power of quantitative uncertainty measures is stronger than that of qualitative measures." @default.
• W2910262810 created "2019-01-25" @default.
• W2910262810 creator A5010426045 @default.
• W2910262810 date "2019-06-01" @default.
• W2910262810 modified "2023-10-12" @default.
• W2910262810 title "Uncertainty over production forecasts: An empirical analysis using monthly quantitative survey data" @default.
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• W2910262810 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2019.01.007" @default.
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