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• W2912148631 abstract "Why do states go to war? War is costly, unpredictable, and risky — and yet it occurs. Scholars may posit different causal mechanisms, but what all of these explorations seem to agree on is that variances in information have a significant effect on war. War is, on some level, a product of uncertainty. In the past, this uncertainty, or variance in information about capabilities, intentions, or outcomes; has been included more as an immeasurable error term than an understandable part of war onset. I propose here that the “error term” can be both defined and captured in how we model war onset. In particular, I argue that we can understand variances in uncertainty by proxying uncertainty with intelligence (or the institutional collection, processing, analysis, distribution, and reception of private information) in crisis decision-making. By understanding the error term as a variable, we are able to explore not only how intelligence affects the onset of war, but also how intelligence can further explain existing theories about the causes of war. In this paper, I identify three main categories of causes of war: structural, behavioral, and domestic. I then construct a model that captures the multiplicative effects of intelligence on the three main categories of the causes of war. I utilize case studies of intelligence failures to illustrate how intelligence affects decisions for war as explained by structural, behavioral, and domestic theories. I conclude by introducing three possible avenues for future research: the empirical testing of the intelligence model using a cross-national data set of crises, psychological experiments of the role of intelligence in decision-making, and in-depth case studies of outliers identified within empirical tests. I believe that by adding intelligence as a measurable variable within the causes of war explanations, I will provide both formal modeling and empirical studies of the onset of war a way to more accurately explain past events and potentially predict future events." @default.
• W2912148631 created "2019-02-21" @default.
• W2912148631 creator A5006344978 @default.
• W2912148631 date "2013-01-01" @default.
• W2912148631 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W2912148631 title "Intelligence and War Onset: A Theoretical Framework" @default.
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• W2912148631 hasPublicationYear "2013" @default.
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