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- W2912197873 abstract "Between 1984 and 1998 the unsecured debt-to-income ratio of U.S. households increased from 4.9% to 9.1%, while consumer bankruptcies rose from 2.0 to 8.3 filings per 1,000 adults. This paper offers an explanation for these facts based on the premise that this period, commonly referred to as the Great Moderation, exhibited decreased economic volatility. In particular, we construct a model of optimal default in which both households and creditors learn about economic fundamentals in the presence of aggregate uncertainty. We prove that an increase in the debt-to-income ratio of households in our model is the natural result of realizing a sequence of aggregate shocks similar to those experienced during the Great Moderation. A calibrated version of our model is able to account for 58% of the rise in the unsecured consumer debt-to-income ratio and 64% of the increase in the bankruptcy filing rate during this period. In addition, we demonstrate that close alternatives to our model which abstract from learning are unable to explain the data." @default.
- W2912197873 created "2019-02-21" @default.
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- W2912197873 date "2011-01-01" @default.
- W2912197873 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W2912197873 title "Learning and the Rise in Consumer Debt and Bankruptcy" @default.
- W2912197873 doi "https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1873275" @default.
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