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- W2912205831 abstract "Background: The shape of non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality varies between different cities with different climatic conditions. Moreover, there has been little examination of how these curves change over time. Aims: Our aim is to evaluate the short-term effects of temperature on mortality in 211 US cities between 1962 and 2006, which have been grouped in clusters. Method: Cluster analysis has been used to group the cities consistent with levels of temperature and relative humidity. Within each cluster we applied city-specific Poisson models, controlling for longterm trend, seasonality and day of the week. The exposure–response functions were estimated on the day of death (lag 0), as well as the mean temperature of the 5 preceding days (lag 1-5) using B-splines. The study-speci?c estimates are then combined through meta-smoothing. We ran the analysis for each decade to evaluate how the association changes over time within each cluster. Results: We identified eight clusters characterized by cold winters (Clusters 1,2) as in the north-west or mild ones as in the south-east (Clusters 5,8). Similarly, we identified clusters characterized by hot and humid summer in south-west and Gulf of Mexico (Clusters 4,6,7) or humid continental and semi-arid in the center of US (Cluster 3). At lag 0 we captured different magnitude of heat effects: at 30°C vs -10°C we found in Cluster 3 a RR of 1.16 (1.14-1.19), and in Cluster 5 a RR of 1.28 (1.21-1.35). Lag 1-5 captured the cold effect: at 0°C vs 20°C in Cluster 1 the RR was 1.15 (1.14-1.16) and in Cluster 6 the RR was 1.22 (1.19-1.25). The analysis of decades showed a high mortality risk for hot temperatures between 1962 and 1979 compared to the other years suggesting the effect of air conditioning in the most recent years. There was no consistent pattern of heat risk change after 1980. Conclusions: The modeling strategy for non-linear effects adopted allowed us to identify and stabilize the risks of climate change over time and in different climatic zones of the US." @default.
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- W2912205831 date "2013-09-19" @default.
- W2912205831 modified "2023-09-29" @default.
- W2912205831 title "Using meta-smoothing to estimate exposure-response curve between ambient temperature and mortality: a multi-city time series analysis." @default.
- W2912205831 doi "https://doi.org/10.1289/isee.2013.p-1-12-33" @default.
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