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- W291230435 abstract "The ability to estimate the likelihood of future events based on current and historical data is essential to the decision making process of many government agencies. Successful predictions related to terror events and characterizing the risks will support development of options for countering these events. The predictive tasks involve both technical and social component models. The social components have presented a particularly difficult challenge. This paper outlines some technical considerations of this modeling activity. Both data and predictions associated with the technical and social models will likely be known with differing certainties or accuracies – a critical challenge is linking across these model domains while respecting this fundamental difference in certainty level. This paper will describe the technical approach being taken to develop the social model and identification of the significant interfaces between the technical and social modeling in the context of analysis of diversion of nuclear material." @default.
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- W291230435 date "2008-12-01" @default.
- W291230435 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W291230435 title "The Use of Dynamic Stochastic Social Behavior Models to Produce Likelihood Functions for Risk Modeling of Proliferation and Terrorist Attacks" @default.
- W291230435 hasPublicationYear "2008" @default.
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