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- W2912808130 abstract "Abstract As urban population is forecast to exceed 60% of the world’s population by 2050, urban growth can be expected. However, research on spatial projections of urban growth at a global scale are limited. We constructed a framework to project global urban growth based on the SLEUTH urban growth model and a database with a resolution of 30 arc-seconds containing urban growth probabilities from 2020 to 2050. Using the historical distribution of the global population from LandScan TM as a proxy for urban land cover, the SLEUTH model was calibrated for the period from 2000 to 2013. This model simulates urban growth using two layers of 50 arc-minutes grids encompassing global urban regions. While varying growth rates are observed in each urban area, the global urban cover is forecast to reach 1.7 × 10 6 km 2 by 2050, which is approximately 1.4 times that of the year 2012. A global urban growth database is essential for future environmental planning and assessments, as well as numerical investigations of future urban climates." @default.
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- W2912808130 date "2019-04-18" @default.
- W2912808130 modified "2023-10-14" @default.
- W2912808130 title "High-resolution global urban growth projection based on multiple applications of the SLEUTH urban growth model" @default.
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- W2912808130 doi "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-019-0048-z" @default.
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