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- W2912851604 abstract "International trade has changed drastically with the emergence of borderless production systems, commonly referred to as Global Value Chains (GVC), and so has the relationship between trade and income. In this paper, we examine the relationship between trade and income by developing an empirical model that takes into account cyclical and structural components, using the Brazilian economy as a country-case. Our approach emphasizes the structural component of the recent change in the trade-income ratio and analyzes in more detail the implications of GVC on trade elasticity to income. A decomposition analysis using an Error Correction Model (ECM) for the period of 2000-2013 suggests that short-term factors were dominant during economic crisis. Moreover, we find that the reshaping of the trade elasticity to income at the aggregated world level also can be observed for an individual country. Trade elasticity appears to have decreased in the 2000s, i.e. the Brazilian trade has become less sensitive to changes in income. We find that vertical specialization significantly affects trade by raising its trade elasticity to income on the aggregated sector level, i.e. trade elasticity is higher when VS variables are considered. However, we cannot find strong evidences for the assumption of greater vertical specialization, greater sensibility to external shocks on the disaggregated sector level." @default.
- W2912851604 created "2019-02-21" @default.
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- W2912851604 date "2016-05-10" @default.
- W2912851604 modified "2023-10-03" @default.
- W2912851604 title "Global Value Chains and Business Cycles Shocks: Trade-income ratio in a vertically specialized scenario" @default.
- W2912851604 hasPublicationYear "2016" @default.
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