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- W2912870186 abstract "Background and Aims: Although numerous studies have shown that high temperatures are related to increased mortality worldwide, little research has investigated whether or not the association may vary over time, in particularly, decrease over time because of human adaptation to hot weather. We examined time-varying mortality risks associated with hot temperature for 15 cities in East Asia. Methods: Data for mortality and weather variables were collected for 15 cities in the East Asia for the last decades (Taipei, Taichung, Kaoshiung in Taiwan, Seoul, Incheon, Daejeon, Daegu, Gwangju, Pusan in Korea, and Sapporo, Sendai, Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya, Kitakyushu in Japan). We examined time-varing association between high-temperatue and mortality using a generalized additive poisson regression. The temperature-mortality relationship was modeled nonlinearly using a natural cubic spline basis and the time-varying coefficients for the basis are also modeled semiparametrically. City-specific estimates for time-varying temperature-mortality relationship curves were obtained and we pooled them to obtain country-specific estimates using a Bayesian hierarchical method.Results: Hot temperature-related mortality risk was defined as % increase in mortality for the 90th vs 99th percentiles of temperatures of each city. For cities in Japan, about 20-25% increases were estimated in 1970’s and the risk has decreased in a quadratic shape down to 5-10% in 2000’s. In Taiwan, the mortality risk was about 4-7% in 1990’s and decreased to 1-4 % in 2000’s. In Korea, 5-15% increases were found in 1990’s and <5% were estimated in 2000’s with some variations among cities. Conclusions: This research showed that high-temperature effects on mortaity have decreased over the last decades for 15 major cities of Japan, Korea, and Taiwan in the East Asia. Study results imply that the study population has adapted well to hot weather for the past decades and such findings should be considered for the estimation of the health risks related to global warming." @default.
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- W2912870186 date "2013-09-19" @default.
- W2912870186 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2912870186 title "Time-varying high temperature effects on mortality for 15 cities in East Asia" @default.
- W2912870186 doi "https://doi.org/10.1289/isee.2013.o-1-07-02" @default.
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