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• W2913601968 abstract "Increasing global mean temperatures and shifting weather patterns due to anthropogenic climate change will influence the supply and demand of electricity. Recently in Nature Communications, Turner and colleagues predicted the impact of current climate change models on the risks of electric grid power shortfalls in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Increasing global mean temperatures and shifting weather patterns due to anthropogenic climate change will influence the supply and demand of electricity. Recently in Nature Communications, Turner and colleagues predicted the impact of current climate change models on the risks of electric grid power shortfalls in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. The electric grid is the backbone of on-demand access to energy in the digital age. It comprises a series of generators that deliver power through a transmission system to end users. Regardless of the time of day, society demands access to electricity to watch television, use computers, have meetings in brightly lit offices, or excessively mine cryptocurrency.1de Vries A. Bitcoin’s Growing Energy Problem.Joule. 2018; 2: 801-805Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF Scopus (250) Google Scholar Maintaining an electric grid with minimal disruptions, such as power shortfalls and blackouts, is a challenging task. Power shortfall occurs when the supply of electricity cannot meet the demand, often because of unexpected and sudden environmental events. To avoid this without incurring significant operational overhead, electric power companies employ complex predictive models to ensure resiliency.2Good N. Ellis K.A. Mancarella P. Review and classification of barriers and enablers of demand response in the smart grid.Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2017; 72: 57-72Crossref Scopus (185) Google Scholar Through these efforts, modern societies have access to a seemingly unlimited amount of uninterrupted energy for their daily needs—and well beyond. To maintain grid resiliency as the global environmental landscape shifts due to climate change, it is important to develop improved predictors for power grid management. High confidence models of climate change still predict global temperature increases of 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 at current rates.3Masson-Delmotte V. Zhai P. Pörtner H.O. Roberts D. Skea J. Shukla P.R. Pirani A. Moufouma-Okia W. Péan C. Pidcock R. et al.IPCC, 2018: Global warming of 1.5°C. World Meteorological Organization, Switzerland2018Google Scholar This is coupled with expected increases in the frequency of natural disasters, and precipitation extremes. Examining the effects of various climate models on the electric power system is an ongoing area of research. At present, existing studies focus on climate-induced changes in the operation and resiliency of a single element of the power system (supply4Tarroja B. AghaKouchak A. Samuelsen S. Quantifying climate change impacts on hydropower generation and implications on electric grid greenhouse gas emissions and operation.Energy. 2016; 111: 295-305Crossref Scopus (90) Google Scholar or demand5Auffhammer M. Baylis P. Hausman C.H. Climate change is projected to have severe impacts on the frequency and intensity of peak electricity demand across the United States.Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. 2017; 114: 1886-1891Crossref PubMed Scopus (191) Google Scholar). However, to better inform electric power policy, the effects of these changes on the entire power system must be examined holistically. Recently in Nature Communications, Turner and colleagues have modeled and forecasted the compound impacts of climate change on the power system in the U.S. Pacific Northwest for the year 2035.6Turner S.W.D. Voisin N. Fazio J. Hua D. Jourabchi M. Compound climate events transform electrical power shortfall risk in the Pacific Northwest.Nat. Commun. 2019; 10: 8Crossref PubMed Scopus (50) Google Scholar They evaluate the risk of power shortfall under six scenarios from a combination of regional infrastructure development and climate change predictors. Using a previously reported power system model with hourly resolution,7Northwest Power and Conservation CouncilGeneration Evaluation System Model (GENESYS).https://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/energy-advisory-committees/system-analysis-advisory-committee/genesys-%E2%80%93-generation-evaluation-system-modelDate: 2016Google Scholar they show a significant transformation on the power shortfall frequency, duration, and timing under conservatively estimated climate change conditions for the region based on INMCM4.08Volodin E.M. Dianskii N.A. Gusev A.V. Simulating present-day climate with the INMCM4.0 coupled model of the atmospheric and oceanic general circulations.Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 2010; 46: 414-431Crossref Scopus (355) Google Scholar and GFDL-ESM2M9Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryEarth System Model.https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/earth-system-model/Date: 2018Google Scholar models. The Pacific Northwest in the U.S. has variable weather conditions and a diversified electricity supply, making it a model region for climate change impact studies. It has distinct seasons, from hot summer months to colder winters with snow. Its electricity system relies heavily on hydroelectric dams, providing near 50% of the annual generation capacity. The rest is supplied by natural gas, coal, and renewables (predominantly wind). The peak load on the electric grid typically occurs during cold winter days, which is attributed to large increases in building heating, and hot summer days for increased building cooling. Evaluating the influence of climate-changed induced temperature and precipitation variations on an electric grid model reveals several key findings. It is observed that by 2035, the number of annual power shortfalls under climate change will increase; however, their duration will decrease, lasting about half as long from 13 ± 1 to ∼7 ± 1 h, and their intensity will decrease, with an average maximum loss of 400 MW, down from 1,000 MW. The timing of these events will further see a large shift from winter months to summer months. Approximately 50% of the associated risk increase is due to the compound effects of increased power demand and reduced hydroelectric availability coinciding in the summer months, highlighting the importance of considering the entire integrated power system in predictive modeling. Taking these findings together, a curious observation is made that climate change “may therefore be viewed as both a risk and an opportunity for power system performance.”6Turner S.W.D. Voisin N. Fazio J. Hua D. Jourabchi M. Compound climate events transform electrical power shortfall risk in the Pacific Northwest.Nat. Commun. 2019; 10: 8Crossref PubMed Scopus (50) Google Scholar The details of this tradeoff will be heavily determined by the specific energy and environmental landscape of a given region. No single energy system is highly resilient, cost competitive, and has a low-carbon footprint. This results in an “energy trilemma” between security, equity, and sustainability.10World Energy CouncilWorld Energy Trilemma.https://www.worldenergy.org/work-programme/strategic-insight/assessment-of-energy-climate-change-policy/Date: 2019Google Scholar Global trends for new energy capacity additions are largely renewable based. At present, renewable energy, such as photovoltaics, is typically less resilient and more expensive than fossil fuels, despite its low-carbon emissions life cycle (Figure 1). With much of the expected growth around the globe to occur by subtracting “reliable” fossil fuels and adding renewables, the issue of energy security becomes more prominent and more compound studies in the wake of climate change are urgently needed." @default.
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• W2913601968 title "Power Shortfalls in the Wake of Climate Change" @default.
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