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- W2914097445 abstract "Introduction Last year, WHO report on the health impact of climate change was published. In the report, we conducted the projection of heat-related excess mortality. However, since the climate and socio-economic scenario used in the report was basically based on just one scenario (SRES A1B), we could not tell the range of uncertainties under plausible alternative future developments. Here, we used the new scenario sets (Representative Concentration Pathways = RCPs and Shared Socio-economic Pathways = SSPs) and conducted future impact projections. Methods We used the same model described in the WHO report, except for that the target population is all-ages, combined, rather than restricting to 65+ years old. In calculating excess deaths, annual number of deaths is necessary. Unfortunately, there has not been future mortality projection based on RCPs and SSPs. Thus, we used the projected SSP-specific populations by sex and 5-year age category for each country by IIASA, and estimated the number of deaths by assuming no immigration. The general circulation models we used were GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and Noresm1-M. Results Regardless of the SSPs or RCPs, the distribution of excess deaths were similar; large excess were observed in Europe, India, eastern China and eastern US. SSP difference appeared small, but RCP8.5 yielded huge excess compared with other lower emission scenarios. Conclusions Unlike other outcomes such as malnutrition, vector-borne diseases or diarrhea, heat-related excess deaths affect developed countries as well as developing countries. Also, the more we emit greenhouse gases, the more excess we will experience. This result would urge all the countries in the world to collaborate for both mitigation and adaptation. Acknowledgement This study was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S10) of the MOE, Japan, and the GRL through NRF, funded by the MOEST, Korea." @default.
- W2914097445 created "2019-02-21" @default.
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- W2914097445 date "2015-08-20" @default.
- W2914097445 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
- W2914097445 title "Projection Of Heat-Related Excess Mortality Using New Climate And Population Scenarios" @default.
- W2914097445 doi "https://doi.org/10.1289/isee.2015.2015-2397" @default.
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