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- W2914097776 abstract "We introduce a new definition of probabilistic forecasts’ coherence based on the divergence between forecasters’ expected utility and their own models’ likelihood function. When the divergence is zero, this utility is said to be local. A new micro-founded forecasting environment, the “Scoring Structure”, where the forecast users interact with forecasters, allows econometricians to build a formal test for the null hypothesis of locality. The test behaves consistently with the requirements of the theoretical literature. The locality is fundamental to set dating algorithms for the assessment of the probability of recession in U.S. business cycle and central banks’ “fan” charts." @default.
- W2914097776 created "2019-02-21" @default.
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- W2914097776 date "2018-01-01" @default.
- W2914097776 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W2914097776 title "Forecasters’ utility and forecast coherence" @default.
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