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- W2915833437 abstract "Research Article| March 28, 2018 2018 One‐Year Seismic Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from Induced and Natural Earthquakes Mark D. Petersen; Mark D. Petersen aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Denver Federal Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A., mpetersen@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Charles S. Mueller; Charles S. Mueller aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Denver Federal Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A., mpetersen@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Morgan P. Moschetti; Morgan P. Moschetti aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Denver Federal Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A., mpetersen@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Susan M. Hoover; Susan M. Hoover aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Denver Federal Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A., mpetersen@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Kenneth S. Rukstales; Kenneth S. Rukstales aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Denver Federal Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A., mpetersen@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Daniel E. McNamara; Daniel E. McNamara aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Denver Federal Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A., mpetersen@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Robert A. Williams; Robert A. Williams aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Denver Federal Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A., mpetersen@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Allison M. Shumway; Allison M. Shumway aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Denver Federal Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A., mpetersen@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Peter M. Powers; Peter M. Powers aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Denver Federal Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A., mpetersen@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Paul S. Earle; Paul S. Earle aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Denver Federal Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A., mpetersen@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Andrea L. Llenos; Andrea L. Llenos bU.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, 345 Middlefield Road, Mail Stop 977, Menlo Park, California 94025 U.S.A. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Andrew J. Michael; Andrew J. Michael bU.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, 345 Middlefield Road, Mail Stop 977, Menlo Park, California 94025 U.S.A. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Justin L. Rubinstein; Justin L. Rubinstein bU.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, 345 Middlefield Road, Mail Stop 977, Menlo Park, California 94025 U.S.A. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Jack H. Norbeck; Jack H. Norbeck bU.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, 345 Middlefield Road, Mail Stop 977, Menlo Park, California 94025 U.S.A. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Elizabeth S. Cochran Elizabeth S. Cochran cU.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena USGS Field Office, 525 South Wilson Avenue, Pasadena, California 91106 U.S.A. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information Mark D. Petersen aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Denver Federal Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A., mpetersen@usgs.gov Charles S. Mueller aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Denver Federal Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A., mpetersen@usgs.gov Morgan P. Moschetti aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Denver Federal Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A., mpetersen@usgs.gov Susan M. Hoover aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Denver Federal Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A., mpetersen@usgs.gov Kenneth S. Rukstales aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Denver Federal Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A., mpetersen@usgs.gov Daniel E. McNamara aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Denver Federal Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A., mpetersen@usgs.gov Robert A. Williams aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Denver Federal Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A., mpetersen@usgs.gov Allison M. Shumway aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Denver Federal Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A., mpetersen@usgs.gov Peter M. Powers aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Denver Federal Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A., mpetersen@usgs.gov Paul S. Earle aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Denver Federal Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A., mpetersen@usgs.gov Andrea L. Llenos bU.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, 345 Middlefield Road, Mail Stop 977, Menlo Park, California 94025 U.S.A. Andrew J. Michael bU.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, 345 Middlefield Road, Mail Stop 977, Menlo Park, California 94025 U.S.A. Justin L. Rubinstein bU.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, 345 Middlefield Road, Mail Stop 977, Menlo Park, California 94025 U.S.A. Jack H. Norbeck bU.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, 345 Middlefield Road, Mail Stop 977, Menlo Park, California 94025 U.S.A. Elizabeth S. Cochran cU.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena USGS Field Office, 525 South Wilson Avenue, Pasadena, California 91106 U.S.A. Publisher: Seismological Society of America First Online: 28 Mar 2018 Online Issn: 1938-2057 Print Issn: 0895-0695 © Seismological Society of America Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (3): 1049–1061. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180005 Article history First Online: 28 Mar 2018 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Mark D. Petersen, Charles S. Mueller, Morgan P. Moschetti, Susan M. Hoover, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Daniel E. McNamara, Robert A. Williams, Allison M. Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Paul S. Earle, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Justin L. Rubinstein, Jack H. Norbeck, Elizabeth S. Cochran; 2018 One‐Year Seismic Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from Induced and Natural Earthquakes. Seismological Research Letters 2018;; 89 (3): 1049–1061. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180005 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietySeismological Research Letters Search Advanced Search ABSTRACT This article describes the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 2018 one‐year probabilistic seismic hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes. For consistency, the updated 2018 forecast is developed using the same probabilistic seismicity‐based methodology as applied in the two previous forecasts. Rates of earthquakes across the United States M≥3.0 grew rapidly between 2008 and 2015 but have steadily declined over the past 3 years, especially in areas of Oklahoma and southern Kansas where fluid injection has decreased. The seismicity pattern in 2017 was complex with earthquakes more spatially dispersed than in the previous years. Some areas of west‐central Oklahoma experienced increased activity rates where industrial activity increased. Earthquake rates in Oklahoma (429 earthquakes of M≥3 and 4 M≥4), Raton basin (Colorado/New Mexico border, six earthquakes M≥3), and the New Madrid seismic zone (11 earthquakes M≥3) continue to be higher than historical levels. Almost all of these earthquakes occurred within the highest hazard regions of the 2017 forecast. Even though rates declined over the past 3 years, the short‐term hazard for damaging ground shaking across much of Oklahoma remains at high levels due to continuing high rates of smaller earthquakes that are still hundreds of times higher than at any time in the state’s history. Fine details and variability between the 2016–2018 forecasts are obscured by significant uncertainties in the input model. These short‐term hazard levels are similar to active regions in California. During 2017, M≥3 earthquakes also occurred in or near Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Illinois, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access." @default.
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- W2915833437 title "2018 One‐Year Seismic Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from Induced and Natural Earthquakes" @default.
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