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- W2939446269 abstract "The Sleeping Beauty Problem is a polarizing thought experiment involving a fair coin toss, memory erasure and temporal uncertainty. Despite its simplicity there is no agreed upon solution. In this work I put forward a set of arguments that support the so-called Halfer or 1/2 solution to the problem, while undermining the competing Thirder or 1/3 solution. In analyzing Elga’s original argument for the 1/3 solution, I bring to light a subtle but clear contradiction in his reasoning using temporal logic. Temporal reasoning also helps to neutralize the main criticisms against the 1/2 solution. Surprisingly, for some questions of probability or credence, it appears we need to distinguish between an event that has yet to occur, and the same event after it has already occurred. Knowledge that an event has been decided (without knowing the result) can be a type of admissible evidence when updating credences." @default.
- W2939446269 created "2019-04-25" @default.
- W2939446269 creator A5084034468 @default.
- W2939446269 date "2019-04-14" @default.
- W2939446269 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2939446269 title "Temporal Logic and Selection in the Sleeping Beauty Problem" @default.
- W2939446269 hasPublicationYear "2019" @default.
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