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- W2941769033 abstract "Are financial crises a negative shock to aggregate demand or supply? This is a fundamental question for research and policy making. Arguments for stimulus usually presume demand-side shortfalls; arguments for tax cuts or structural reform look to the supply side. Resolving the question requires models with both mechanisms, and empirical tests to tell them apart. We develop a small open economy model, where a country is subject to deleveraging shocks that impose binding credit constraints on households and/or firms. These financial crisis events leave distinct statistical signatures in the time series record that divide sharply between each type of shock. Empirical analysis reveals a clear picture: after financial crises the dominant pattern is that imports contract, exports hold steady or even rise, and the real exchange rate depreciates. History shows financial crises are predominantly a negative shock to demand. (JEL F14, F31, F41, G01, N10, N20, N70)" @default.
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- W2941769033 date "2020-12-01" @default.
- W2941769033 modified "2023-10-16" @default.
- W2941769033 title "After the Panic: Are Financial Crises Demand or Supply Shocks? Evidence from International Trade" @default.
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- W2941769033 doi "https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20190533" @default.
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