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- W294871187 abstract "Vital to economic development, air transport is one of the fastest growing sources of greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, the Aviation Integrated Model, currently under development at the University of Cambridge, is used to assess the impact of an open emissions trading scheme on the US and Indian air transport systems. The analysis is based on three internally consistent projections of per capita GDP, population, oil price, and carbon price until 2050. In each projection three different stabilization targets of atmospheric CO2 concentration are examined, ranging from 450 ppm to 750 ppm. Significant reductions in air travel demand, fuel use, CO2 emissions and required airport capacity growth before 2050 were only observed relative to a reference case in the most stringent scenario of stabilizing the atmospheric CO2 concentration, i.e. at 450 ppm – an extremely challenging task. The air transport system response was found to increase if non-CO2 emissions from aviation were considered in the trading scheme. This study also suggests that any given stringency level will have differing effects on shortand long-haul traffic. A comparison between the domestic aviation system impacts in the US and India suggests a generally smaller response of the Indian air traffic system to a given CO2 emissions trading scheme due to lower price elasticities and average trip distance. INTRODUCTION The demand for air travel is widely projected to continue its strong historical growth of about 5% per year in worldwide revenue passenger and freight ton kilometers (RPK/RTK) over the next 20-40 years (e.g. 1, 2, 3), with some regions projected to grow much faster (e.g. India and China). While this growth carries a range of societal and economic benefits, it also creates challenges. One of the most important of these is the growing environmental impact of this sector, both on a local (e.g., noise, air quality) and global scale (e.g., climate change). The mitigation of these impacts is often proposed to occur through policy mechanisms. This paper examines the effects of one such policy mechanism: a global Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). This type of market-based policy mechanism has gained increasing attention since the European Union (EU) has legislated that all flights taking off or landing in Europe will be included in the EU ETS from 2012 (4). An integrated aviation/environment assessment tool, currently under development in the Aviation Integrated Modelling (AIM) project, is used to simulate the impacts of a global ETS policy on passenger aircraft fuel use, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, airport capacity requirements, and other aviation system characteristics through 2050 in the United States and India. These two regions were selected because they have different degrees of economic development, travel demand characteristics and air transport system maturity and hence different likely responses to the policy. The components of the AIM model relevant to this study are described in the next section. The results from its application to the US and Indian systems are discussed and conclusions drawn thereafter. Dray, Evans, Reynolds, Rogers, Schafer, Vera-Morales 2 THE AVIATION INTEGRATED MODEL The Aviation Integrated Model consists of seven interacting modules as shown in Figure 1, each covering a different component of the air transport and environment system. The chosen architecture permits important feedback and data flows between the key system elements to be captured and provides natural input sites for policy measures to be imposed upon the system as shown. A detailed description of all the modules and their interactions is given in (5). The primary modules relevant to this study are the Aircraft Technology & Cost, Air Transport Demand, Airport Activity and Aircraft Movement modules. The set-up for these modules in this study is briefly summarized in the next sections. Local/Regional Environment Impacts Global Environment Impacts Aircraft Technology & Cost Aircraft Movement" @default.
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- W294871187 date "2008-01-01" @default.
- W294871187 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W294871187 title "Air Transport Within An Emissions Trading Regime: A Network-based Analysis of the United States and India" @default.
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