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- W2949113218 abstract "How dangerous are nuclear crises? What dynamics underpin how they unfold? Recent tensions between North Korea and the United States have exposed disagreement among scholars and analysts regarding these questions. We reconcile these apparently contradictory views by showing the circumstances in which different models of nuclear crises should be expected to hold. Nuclear crises should be expected to have different dynamics depending on two variables: the incentives to use nuclear weapons first in a crisis and the extent to which escalation is controllable by the leaders involved. Variation across these two dimensions generates four types of nuclear crises: “staircase,” “stability-instability,” “brinkmanship,” and “firestorm” crises. These models correspond to well-established ways of thinking about nuclear crises, but no one model is “correct.” Different models should be expected to apply in different cases, and nuclear crises should therefore be interpreted differently according to which model is most appropriate. We demonstrate the utility of our framework using the cases of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, 1999 Kargil War, 2017 Doklam Crisis, and ongoing U.S.-North Korean tensions." @default.
- W2949113218 created "2019-06-27" @default.
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- W2949113218 date "2019-02-01" @default.
- W2949113218 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W2949113218 title "How to Think About Nuclear Crises (February 2019)" @default.
- W2949113218 doi "https://doi.org/10.26153/tsw/1944" @default.
- W2949113218 hasPublicationYear "2019" @default.
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