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- W2954776401 abstract "Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cross-country panel of growth forecasts and new methodological insights, this paper finds that: consensus forecasts are inefficient as predicted; this is not due to individual forecaster irrationality; forecasters appear unaware of this inefficiency; and a simple adjustment reduces forecast errors by 5 percent. Similar results are found using US nominal GDP forecasts. The paper also discusses the result’s implications for users of forecaster surveys and for the literature on information aggregation." @default.
- W2954776401 created "2019-07-12" @default.
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- W2954776401 date "2010-01-01" @default.
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- W2954776401 title "Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation" @default.
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- W2954776401 doi "https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455201891.001" @default.
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