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- W2956064232 abstract "In cold region environments, any alteration in the hydro-climatic regime can have profound impacts on river ice processes. This paper studies the implications of hydro-climatic trends on river ice processes, particularly on the freeze-up and ice-cover breakup along the Athabasca River in Fort McMurray in western Canada, which is an area very prone to ice-jam flooding. Using a stochastic approach in a one-dimensional hydrodynamic river ice model, a relationship between overbank flow and breakup discharge is established. Furthermore, the likelihood of ice-jam flooding in the future (2041–2070 period) is assessed by forcing a hydrological model with meteorological inputs from the Canadian regional climate model driven by two atmospheric–ocean general circulation climate models. Our results show that the probability of ice-jam flooding for the town of Fort McMurray in the future will be lower, but extreme ice-jam flood events are still probable." @default.
- W2956064232 created "2019-07-12" @default.
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- W2956064232 date "2019-07-17" @default.
- W2956064232 modified "2023-10-15" @default.
- W2956064232 title "Climatic effects on ice phenology and ice-jam flooding of the Athabasca River in western Canada" @default.
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- W2956064232 doi "https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1638927" @default.
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