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• W2969698446 abstract "Concern regarding the vascular surgeon (VS) workforce persists. We aimed to predict future VS workforce size and capacity using contemporary data on the U.S. population and number, productivity, and practice patterns of VSs. Workforce size needed to maintain current levels of access was estimated as 1.4 VSs per 100,000 population based on “A market analysis of vascular surgery supply, demand, compensation and recruiting trends: prepared for the Society for Vascular Surgery November 13, 2017” by Merritt Hawkins. Updated population estimates were obtained from the Census Bureau. We calculated future VS workforce needs on the basis of the estimated population. American Medical Association Physician Masterfile data from 1997 to 2017 were used to establish the existing VS workforce size and to predict future VS workforce size, accounting for annual rates of new certificates (increased to an average of 133/y since 2013); retirement (17%/y); and effects of VSs' experiencing burnout, reducing work hours, transitioning to nonclinical jobs, or retiring early as described by Shanafelt and The Physicians Foundation 2018 Survey of America's Physicians. Based on Medical Group Management Association data, which estimate average VS productivity to be 8481 work relative value units (wRVUs)/y, excess and deficits in wRVU capacity were calculated on the basis of the number of anticipated practicing VSs. Our model predicts declining shortages of VSs through 2040, with workforce size meeting demand by 2050 (Table). Each VS would need to increase yearly wRVU production by 21% in 2030 and by 7% in 2040 to accommodate the workload volume. Our model predicts a shortage of VSs in the coming decades, with workforce size meeting demand by 2050. This may be related to increases in the number of trainees from 0-5 residencies and decreases in population estimates as baby boomers die. Until then, VSs will be required to work harder to accommodate the workload. Burnout, changing practice patterns, geographic maldistribution, and aging of the population may adversely affect the ability of the future workforce to accommodate population needs.TableFuture vascular surgeon (VS) workforce needs and predictionsYear20172020203020402050Projected population310,233,000332,639,102355,100,730373,527,973388,922,201VSs needed4657497152295445wRVUs needed39,495,57142,162,53044,350,47046,178,289VSs forecasted32323350410748655622wRVUs forecasted28,411,35034,831,46741,260,06547,680,182% Shortage28%17%7%−3%Amount each future VS would need to increase production39%21%7%−3%VSs forecasted with 2% burnout3283402547685510wRVUs forecasted27,843,12334,134,83840,434,86446,726,578% Shortage30%19%9%−1%Amount each future VS would need to increase production42%24%10%−1%VSs forecasted with 10% all-cause attrition3015369643795060wRVUs forecasted25,570,21531,348,32037,134,05942,912,164% Shortage35%26%16%7%Amount each future VS would need to increase production54%34%19%8%wRVUs, Work relative value units. Open table in a new tab" @default.
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• W2969698446 date "2019-09-01" @default.
• W2969698446 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W2969698446 title "A Contemporary Reassessment of the Vascular Surgery Workforce Predicts a Shortage in Available Services for the Next 20 Years" @default.
• W2969698446 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvs.2019.06.160" @default.
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